Modelling the impact of modifying lifestyle risk factors on dementia prevalence in Australian population aged 45 years and over, 2006-2051.

Abstract:

AIM:To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over. METHODS:A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence. RESULTS:Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic. CONCLUSION:Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.

journal_name

Australas J Ageing

authors

Nepal B,Brown L,Ranmuthugala G

doi

10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00392.x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2010-09-01 00:00:00

pages

111-6

issue

3

eissn

1440-6381

issn

1741-6612

pii

AJA392

journal_volume

29

pub_type

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