Abstract:
:We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.
journal_name
Ecol Lettjournal_title
Ecology lettersauthors
Ellner SP,Holmes EEdoi
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01211.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-08-01 00:00:00pages
E1-5issue
8eissn
1461-023Xissn
1461-0248pii
ELE1211journal_volume
11pub_type
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