Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

Abstract:

:We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

journal_name

Ecol Lett

journal_title

Ecology letters

authors

Ellner SP,Holmes EE

doi

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01211.x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2008-08-01 00:00:00

pages

E1-5

issue

8

eissn

1461-023X

issn

1461-0248

pii

ELE1211

journal_volume

11

pub_type

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