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Validity of the Rockall scoring system after endoscopic therapy for bleeding peptic ulcer: a prospective cohort study.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND:The Rockall scoring system was developed in unselected patients, the majority of whom did not receive endoscopic therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the Rockall system in high-risk patients who undergo endoscopic therapy for peptic ulcer hemorrhage. METHODS:Rockall scores were calculated in 247 patients with major peptic ulcer bleeding entered into a randomized trial of endoscopic therapy. The observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy were compared with predicted rates derived from Rockall's study group. The validity of the Rockall system was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS:Rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy increased with an increasing Rockall score. Observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality were below predicted rates, and calibration of the Rockall system was poor (Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 25.8, p < 0.0001 for recurrent bleeding; Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 15.1, p < 0.0001 for death). For the prediction of recurrent bleeding, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was low (63.4%), but the system was satisfactory when predicting mortality (area under the resulting curve, 84.3%). CONCLUSIONS:After endoscopic therapy for a bleeding peptic ulcer, the Rockall scoring system can identify patients at high risk of death, but it is inadequate for the prediction of recurrent bleeding.

journal_name

Gastrointest Endosc

journal_title

Gastrointestinal endoscopy

authors

Church NI,Dallal HJ,Masson J,Mowat NA,Johnston DA,Radin E,Turner M,Fullarton G,Prescott RJ,Palmer KR

doi

10.1016/j.gie.2005.06.042

keywords:

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2006-04-01 00:00:00

pages

606-12

issue

4

eissn

0016-5107

issn

1097-6779

pii

S0016-5107(05)02312-6

journal_volume

63

pub_type

杂志文章,随机对照试验

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