Abstract:
:Discrete-time Markov chains have been successfully used to investigate treatment programs and health care protocols for chronic diseases. In these situations, the transition matrix, which describes the natural progression of the disease, is often estimated from a cohort observed at common intervals. Estimation of the matrix, however, is often complicated by the complex relationship among transition probabilities. This paper summarizes methods to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of the transition matrix when the cycle length of the model coincides with the observation interval, the cycle length does not coincide with the observation interval, and when the observation intervals are unequal in length. In addition, the bootstrap is discussed as a method to assess the uncertainty of the maximum likelihood estimate and to construct confidence intervals for functions of the transition matrix such as expected survival.
journal_name
Health Econjournal_title
Health economicsauthors
Craig BA,Sendi PPdoi
10.1002/hec.654keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2002-01-01 00:00:00pages
33-42issue
1eissn
1057-9230issn
1099-1050pii
10.1002/hec.654journal_volume
11pub_type
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