Abstract:
:Spatio-temporal Bayesian disease mapping is the branch of spatial epidemiology interested in providing valuable risk estimates in certain geographical regions using administrative areas as statistical units. The aim of the present paper is to describe spatio-temporal distribution of cardiovascular mortality in the Province of Pavia in 2010 through 2015 and assess its association with environmental pollution exposure. To produce reliable risk estimates, eight different models (hierarchical log-linear model) have been assessed: temporal parametric trend components were included together with some random effects that allowed the accounting of spatial structure of the region. The Bayesian approach allowed the borrowing information effect, including simpler model results in the more complex setting. To compare these models, Watanabe-Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) and Leave One Out Information Criteria (LOOIC) were applied. In the modelling phase, the relationship between the disease risk and pollutants exposure (PM2.5) accounting for the urbanisation level of each geographical unit showed a strong significant effect of the pollutant exposure (OR = 1.075 and posterior probability, or PP, >0.999, equivalent to p < 0.001). A high-risk cluster of Cardiovascular mortality in the Lomellina subareas in the studied window was identified.
journal_name
Int J Environ Res Public Healthauthors
Trivelli L,Borrelli P,Cadum E,Pisoni E,Villani Sdoi
10.3390/ijerph18020658subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2021-01-14 00:00:00issue
2eissn
1661-7827issn
1660-4601pii
ijerph18020658journal_volume
18pub_type
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