Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Predictive models can serve as early warning systems and can be used to forecast future risk of various infectious diseases. Conventionally, regression and time series models are used to forecast dengue incidence, using dengue surveillance (e.g., case counts) and weather data. However, these models may be limited in terms of model assumptions and the number of predictors that can be included. Machine learning (ML) methods are designed to work with a large number of predictors and thus offer an appealing alternative. Here, we compared the performance of ML algorithms with that of regression models in predicting dengue cases and outbreaks from 4 to up to 12 weeks in advance. Many countries lack sufficient health surveillance infrastructure, as such we evaluated the contribution of dengue surveillance and weather data on the predictive power of these models. METHODS:We developed ML, regression, and time series models to forecast weekly dengue case counts and outbreaks in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore from 1990-2016. Forecasts were generated using available weekly dengue surveillance, and weather data. We evaluated the agreement between model forecasts and actual dengue observations using Mean Absolute Error and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC). RESULTS:For near term predictions of weekly case counts and when using surveillance data, ML models had 21% and 33% less error than regression and time series models respectively. However, using weather data only, ML models did not demonstrate a practical advantage. When forecasting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks in advance, ML models achieved a maximum MCC of 0.61. CONCLUSIONS:Our results identified 2 scenarios when ML models are advantageous over regression model: 1) predicting dengue weekly case counts 4 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are available and 2) predicting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are unavailable. Given the advantages of ML models, dengue early warning systems may be improved by the inclusion of these models.
journal_name
PLoS Negl Trop Disjournal_title
PLoS neglected tropical diseasesauthors
Benedum CM,Shea KM,Jenkins HE,Kim LY,Markuzon Ndoi
10.1371/journal.pntd.0008710subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-10-16 00:00:00pages
e0008710issue
10eissn
1935-2727issn
1935-2735pii
PNTD-D-19-00899journal_volume
14pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Morocco has achieved the goal of leprosy elimination as a public health problem several years ago (less than 1 case/ 10 000 habitant). The aim of this study was to analyze trends of leprosy detection during the last 17 years taking into consideration the implementation of single dose rifampicin chemoprophyla...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006910
更新日期:2018-12-20 00:00:00
abstract::Rhinoscleroma is a chronic granulomatous infection of the upper airways caused by the bacterium Klebsiella pneumoniae subsp. rhinoscleromatis. The disease is endemic in tropical and subtropical areas, but its diagnosis remains difficult. As a consequence, and despite available antibiotherapy, some patients evolve adva...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001052
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a hi...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006652
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abstract::Coral snakes of the genus Micrurus have a high diversity and wide distribution in the Americas. Despite envenomings by these animals being uncommon, accidents are often severe and may result in death. Producing an antivenom to treat these envenomings has been challenging since coral snakes are difficult to catch, prod...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000909
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Human African trypanosomiasis is a severely neglected vector-borne disease that is always fatal if untreated. In Tanzania it is highly focalised and of major socio-economic and public health importance in affected communities. OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of rhodesiense H...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Morbidity due to Schistosoma haematobium and hookworm infections is marked in those with intense co-infections by these parasites. The development of a spatial predictive decision-support tool is crucial for targeting the delivery of integrated mass drug administration (MDA) to those most in need. We investi...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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abstract::Vaccines against Salmonella Typhi, the causative agent of typhoid fever, are commonly used by travellers, however, there are few examples of national immunization programs in endemic areas. There is therefore a paucity of data on the impact of typhoid immunization programs on localised populations of S. Typhi. Here we...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract:BACKGROUND:In the past decade, research on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has intensified in response to the need to enhance community participation in health delivery, establish monitoring and surveillance systems, and integrate existing disease-specific treatment programs to control overlapping NTD burdens and de...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
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abstract:BACKGROUND:During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract::During Schistosoma infection, lack of B cells results in more severe granulomas, inflammation, and fibrosis in the liver, but the mechanisms underlying this pathology remain unclear. This study was to clarify the mechanisms underpinning the immunomodulation of B cells in mice infected with Schistosoma japonicum (S. ja...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Although leprosy is portrayed as a disappearing disease, leprosy affected persons in India are still suffering massively. Even further, nearly 60% of the world's newly detected cases are appearing from India alone. The problem has exacerbated due to the drastic decrease of global funding after India's offici...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008016
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abstract:BACKGROUND:In the Brazilian Amazon, clinical and epidemiological frameworks of Chagas disease are very dissimilar in relation to the endemic classical areas of transmission, possibly due to genetic and biological characteristics of the circulating Trypanosoma cruzi stocks. Twenty six T. cruzi stocks from Western Amazon...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002069
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abstract::One of the most important clinical signs of dengue virus infection is the reduction of white blood cells and platelets in human peripheral blood (leukopenia and thrombocytopenia, respectively), which may significantly impair the clearance of dengue virus by the immune system. The cause of thrombocytopenia and leukopen...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Fascioliasis is an emerging zoonotic disease of considerable veterinary and public health importance. Triclabendazole is the only available drug for treatment. Laboratory studies have documented promising fasciocidal properties of the artemisinins (e.g., artemether). METHODOLOGY:We carried out two explorato...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001285
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Aminoacyl tRNA synthetases are central enzymes required for protein synthesis. These enzymes are the known drug targets in bacteria and fungi. Here, we for the first time report the functional characterization of threonyl tRNA synthetase (LdThrRS) of Leishmania donovani, a protozoan parasite, the primary cau...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Human lice, Pediculus humanus, are obligate blood-sucking parasites. Body lice, Pediculus h. humanus, occur in two divergent mitochondrial clades (A and D) each exhibiting a particular geographic distribution. Currently, the body louse is recognized as the only vector for louse-borne diseases. In this study,...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006397
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abstract::Adenosine-5'-triphosphate (ATP) is an important phosphate metabolite abundantly found in Mycobacterium leprae bacilli. This pathogen does not derive ATP from its host but has its own mechanism for the generation of ATP. Interestingly, this molecule as well as several antigenic proteins act as bio-markers for the detec...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003661
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001724
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract::[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007025.]. ...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 已发布勘误
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008725
更新日期:2020-09-01 00:00:00