Abstract:
:Canine rabies was endemic pre-urbanisation, yet little is known about how it persists in small populations of dogs typically seen in rural and remote regions. By simulating rabies outbreaks in such populations (50-90 dogs) using a network-based model, our objective was to determine if rabies-induced behavioural changes influence disease persistence. Behavioural changes-increased bite frequency and increased number or duration of contacts (disease-induced roaming or paralysis, respectively)-were found to be essential for disease propagation. Spread occurred in approximately 50% of model simulations and in these, very low case rates (2.0-2.6 cases/month) over long durations (95% range 20-473 days) were observed. Consequently, disease detection is a challenge, risking human infection and spread to other communities via dog movements. Even with 70% pre-emptive vaccination, spread occurred in >30% of model simulations (in these, median case rate was 1.5/month with 95% range of 15-275 days duration). We conclude that the social disruption caused by rabies-induced behavioural change is the key to explaining how rabies persists in small populations of dogs. Results suggest that vaccination of substantially greater than the recommended 70% of dog populations is required to prevent rabies emergence in currently free rural areas.
journal_name
PLoS Negl Trop Disjournal_title
PLoS neglected tropical diseasesauthors
Brookes VJ,Dürr S,Ward MPdoi
10.1371/journal.pntd.0007739subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-09-23 00:00:00pages
e0007739issue
9eissn
1935-2727issn
1935-2735pii
PNTD-D-19-00318journal_volume
13pub_type
杂志文章abstract::A budget proposal to stop the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding in surveillance and research for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and West Nile virus has the potential to leave the country ill-prepared to handle new emerging diseases and manage existing ones. In order to demonstrate t...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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