Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP).

Abstract:

:A timely determination of the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals' PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants' item-level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow-up assessment 4-15 months later. The Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants' education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio-economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow-up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow-up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of follow-up PTSD (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.976). Adding respondents' female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals' PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.

journal_name

World Psychiatry

authors

Shalev AY,Gevonden M,Ratanatharathorn A,Laska E,van der Mei WF,Qi W,Lowe S,Lai BS,Bryant RA,Delahanty D,Matsuoka YJ,Olff M,Schnyder U,Seedat S,deRoon-Cassini TA,Kessler RC,Koenen KC,International Consortium to Predict P

doi

10.1002/wps.20608

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-02-01 00:00:00

pages

77-87

issue

1

eissn

1723-8617

issn

2051-5545

journal_volume

18

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Risk of metabolic syndrome and its components in people with schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    abstract::Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components are highly predictive of cardiovascular diseases. The primary aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the prevalence of MetS and its components in people with schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20252

    authors: Vancampfort D,Stubbs B,Mitchell AJ,De Hert M,Wampers M,Ward PB,Rosenbaum S,Correll CU

    更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00

  • Child murder by mothers: patterns and prevention.

    abstract::The tragedy of maternal filicide, or child murder by mothers, has occurred throughout history and throughout the world. This review of the research literature sought to identify common predictors in the general population as well as in correctional and psychiatric samples. Further research is needed to improve identif...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Hatters Friedman S,Resnick PJ

    更新日期:2007-10-01 00:00:00

  • The art of psychiatry.

    abstract::Psychiatrists would undoubtedly support the notion of promoting such qualities as empathy, sensitivity and caring in the pursuit of good clinical practice. However, cultivating what we may call the "art of psychiatry" is not straightforward, since the qualities that constitute it are elusive. I propose that the means ...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Bloch S

    更新日期:2005-10-01 00:00:00

  • Integrating mental health into primary health care: local initiatives from Uganda.

    abstract::Uganda has passed through political and bloody civil strife stretching over 40 years. Since 1987 the HIV/AIDS pandemic has compounded the problems of the country. The present paper describes some initiatives to develop mental health services in one district of the country. A bottom-up approach in the district resulted...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Ovuga E,Boardman J,Wasserman D

    更新日期:2007-02-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating treatment coverage for people with substance use disorders: an analysis of data from the World Mental Health Surveys.

    abstract::Substance use is a major cause of disability globally. This has been recognized in the recent United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in which treatment coverage for substance use disorders is identified as one of the indicators. There have been no estimates of this treatment coverage cross-nationally, ma...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20457

    authors: Degenhardt L,Glantz M,Evans-Lacko S,Sadikova E,Sampson N,Thornicroft G,Aguilar-Gaxiola S,Al-Hamzawi A,Alonso J,Helena Andrade L,Bruffaerts R,Bunting B,Bromet EJ,Miguel Caldas de Almeida J,de Girolamo G,Florescu S,Gureje O

    更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00

  • Mental health policies on reporting child sexual abuse and physician-patient sexual relationships.

    abstract::The reporting of child sexual abuse (CSA) and physician-patient sexual relationships (PPSR) are currently the focus of professional, legal and media attention in several countries. This paper briefly reviews mental health policies on these issues and reports on a WPA survey of them. While the WPA Madrid Declaration pe...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/j.2051-5545.2009.tb00210.x

    authors: Stewart DE,Venos E,Ashraf IJ

    更新日期:2009-02-01 00:00:00

  • How well can post-traumatic stress disorder be predicted from pre-trauma risk factors? An exploratory study in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

    abstract::Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) should be one of the most preventable mental disorders, since many people exposed to traumatic experiences (TEs) could be targeted in first response settings in the immediate aftermath of exposure for preventive intervention. However, these interventions are costly and the proport...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20150

    authors: Kessler RC,Rose S,Koenen KC,Karam EG,Stang PE,Stein DJ,Heeringa SG,Hill ED,Liberzon I,McLaughlin KA,McLean SA,Pennell BE,Petukhova M,Rosellini AJ,Ruscio AM,Shahly V,Shalev AY,Silove D,Zaslavsky AM,Angermeyer MC,Br

    更新日期:2014-10-01 00:00:00

  • The promise of cognitive behavior therapy for treatment of severe mental disorders: a review of recent developments.

    abstract::Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), as exemplified by the model of psychotherapy developed and refined over the past 40 years by A.T. Beck and colleagues, is one of the treatments of first choice for ambulatory depressive and anxiety disorders. Over the past several decades, there have been vigorous efforts to adapt CBT...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20149

    authors: Thase ME,Kingdon D,Turkington D

    更新日期:2014-10-01 00:00:00

  • Efficacy and safety of deep transcranial magnetic stimulation for major depression: a prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial.

    abstract::Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a prevalent and disabling condition, and many patients do not respond to available treatments. Deep transcranial magnetic stimulation (dTMS) is a new technology allowing non-surgical stimulation of relatively deep brain areas. This is the first double-blind randomized controlled mult...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20199

    authors: Levkovitz Y,Isserles M,Padberg F,Lisanby SH,Bystritsky A,Xia G,Tendler A,Daskalakis ZJ,Winston JL,Dannon P,Hafez HM,Reti IM,Morales OG,Schlaepfer TE,Hollander E,Berman JA,Husain MM,Sofer U,Stein A,Adler S,Deutsch

    更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00

  • Developing a New Zealand casemix classification for mental health services.

    abstract::This study aimed to develop a casemix classification of characteristics of New Zealand mental health services users. Over a six month period, patient information, staff time and service costs were collected from 8 district health boards. This information was analysed seeking the classification of service user characte...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Eagar K,Gaines P,Burgess P,Green J,Bower A,Buckingham B,Mellsop G

    更新日期:2004-10-01 00:00:00

  • Probing cortical dopamine function in schizophrenia: what can D1 receptors tell us?

    abstract::Schizophrenia is characterized by positive symptoms, negative symptoms and cognitive impairment. Positive symptoms may be related to excessive dopamine (DA) function, as suggested by the common antidopaminergic properties of antipsychotic medications, which are most effective at treating positive symptoms. Negative sy...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Abi-Dargham A

    更新日期:2003-10-01 00:00:00

  • The future of psychological therapies for psychosis.

    abstract::The need for psychological therapies for psychosis is increasingly recognised. In recent years, two psychological approaches, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and family interventions (FI), have emerged from among a range of psychological approaches as effective therapies with the strongest evidence base. The theor...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Garety PA

    更新日期:2003-10-01 00:00:00

  • "Capacity", "best interests", "will and preferences" and the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

    abstract::The United Nations (UN) Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) is the most up-to-date international legal instrument concerning the rights of persons with disabilities. Such persons are taken to include those with serious mental disorders. According to an authoritative interpretation of a crucial...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20584

    authors: Szmukler G

    更新日期:2019-02-01 00:00:00

  • Clinical utility of ICD-11 diagnostic guidelines for high-burden mental disorders: results from mental health settings in 13 countries.

    abstract::In this paper we report the clinical utility of the diagnostic guidelines for ICD-11 mental, behavioural and neurodevelopmental disorders as assessed by 339 clinicians in 1,806 patients in 28 mental health settings in 13 countries. Clinician raters applied the guidelines for schizophrenia and other primary psychotic d...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20581

    authors: Reed GM,Keeley JW,Rebello TJ,First MB,Gureje O,Ayuso-Mateos JL,Kanba S,Khoury B,Kogan CS,Krasnov VN,Maj M,de Jesus Mari J,Sharan P,Stein DJ,Zhao M,Akiyama T,Andrews HF,Asevedo E,Cheour M,Domínguez-Martínez T,El-Kh

    更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00

  • Randomized controlled trial of supported employment in England: 2 year follow-up of the Supported Work and Needs (SWAN) study.

    abstract::Studies from North America have concluded that supported employment using the Individual Placement and Support (IPS) model is effective in helping individuals with severe and persistent mental illness gain competitive employment. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IPS ...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/j.2051-5545.2011.tb00035.x

    authors: Heslin M,Howard L,Leese M,McCrone P,Rice C,Jarrett M,Spokes T,Huxley P,Thornicroft G

    更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • Recent developments in the theory of dissociation.

    abstract::Although the construct of dissociation was introduced into psychiatry at the end of the 19th century by Pierre Janet, the term still lacks a coherent conceptualization, which is partially reflected by differences in the classification of dissociative and conversion disorders in ICD-10 and DSM-IV. Given the clinical si...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Spitzer C,Barnow S,Freyberger HJ,Grabe HJ

    更新日期:2006-06-01 00:00:00

  • Insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders: relationship with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, underlying causes and emerging treatments.

    abstract::Poor insight in schizophrenia is prevalent across cultures and phases of illness. In this review, we examine the recent research on the relationship of insight with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, on its complex roots, and on the effects of existing and emerging treatments. This research indicates that p...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20508

    authors: Lysaker PH,Pattison ML,Leonhardt BL,Phelps S,Vohs JL

    更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00

  • Mental health services in the Arab world.

    abstract::This paper summarizes the current situation of mental health services in the Arab world. Out of 20 countries for which information is available, six do not have a mental health legislation and two do not have a mental health policy. Three countries (Lebanon, Kuwait and Bahrain) had in 2007 more than 30 psychiatric bed...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.wpsyc.2012.01.008

    authors: Okasha A,Karam E,Okasha T

    更新日期:2012-02-01 00:00:00

  • Quality of life in mental disorders: challenges for research and clinical practice.

    abstract::The term quality of life (Qol) has become a rallying cry for all those who strive to integrate patients' subjective experience of their life during illness into clinical care. With its intuitive appeal, Qol seems to be understood by everyone involved in managing health and disease. However, when examining the ever inc...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Katschnig H

    更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00

  • Bereavement after sibling death: a population-based longitudinal case-control study.

    abstract::The objective of this study was to examine mental disorders and treatment use among bereaved siblings in the general population. Siblings (N=7243) of all deceased children in the population of Manitoba, Canada who died between 1984 and 2009 were matched 1:3 to control siblings (N=21,729) who did not have a sibling die...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20293

    authors: Bolton JM,Au W,Chateau D,Walld R,Leslie WD,Enns J,Martens PJ,Katz LY,Logsetty S,Sareen J

    更新日期:2016-02-01 00:00:00

  • Telemental health: A status update.

    abstract::A rather large body of literature now exists on the use of telemental health services in the diagnosis and management of various psychiatric conditions. This review aims to provide an up-to-date assessment of telemental health, focusing on four main areas: computerized CBT (cCBT), Internet-based CBT (iCBT), virtual re...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20218

    authors: Aboujaoude E,Salame W,Naim L

    更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • Childhood adversities and psychosis: evidence, challenges, implications.

    abstract::There is a substantial body of research reporting evidence of associations between various forms of childhood adversity and psychosis, across the spectrum from experiences to disorder. This has been extended, more recently, to include studies of cumulative effects, of interactions with other factors, of specific effec...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20330

    authors: Morgan C,Gayer-Anderson C

    更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00

  • Testing structural models of psychopathology at the genomic level.

    abstract::Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed hundreds of genetic loci associated with the vulnerability to major psychiatric disorders, and post-GWAS analyses have shown substantial genetic correlations among these disorders. This evidence supports the existence of a higher-order structure of psychopathology a...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20772

    authors: Waldman ID,Poore HE,Luningham JM,Yang J

    更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00

  • A randomized controlled effectiveness trial of cognitive behavior therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder in terrorist-affected people in Thailand.

    abstract::Although cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is the treatment of choice for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), there is no evidence of its success with PTSD patients still under direct threat of terrorist attacks. This study reports the first randomized controlled trial of CBT for PTSD terrorist-affected people. Twe...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/j.2051-5545.2011.tb00058.x

    authors: Bryant RA,Ekasawin S,Chakrabhand S,Suwanmitri S,Duangchun O,Chantaluckwong T

    更新日期:2011-10-01 00:00:00

  • The RDoC framework: facilitating transition from ICD/DSM to dimensional approaches that integrate neuroscience and psychopathology.

    abstract::In 2008, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) included in its new Strategic Plan the following aim: "Develop, for research purposes, new ways of classifying mental disorders based on dimensions of observable behavior and neurobiological measures". The implementation of this aim was named the Research Domain ...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20087

    authors: Cuthbert BN

    更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00

  • Predictors of type 2 diabetes in a nationally representative sample of adults with psychosis.

    abstract::Antipsychotic drugs such as clozapine and olanzapine are associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes, but relatively little is known about the relationship between risk factors for type 2 diabetes established in the general population and type 2 diabetes in people with psychosis. We estimated the prevalence ...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20130

    authors: Foley DL,Mackinnon A,Morgan VA,Watts GF,McGrath JJ,Castle DJ,Waterreus A,Galletly CA

    更新日期:2014-06-01 00:00:00

  • Lessons learned in developing community mental health care in Latin American and Caribbean countries.

    abstract::This paper summarizes the findings for the Latin American and Caribbean countries of the WPA Task Force on Steps, Obstacles and Mistakes to Avoid in the Implementation of Community Mental Health Care. It presents an overview of the provision of mental health services in the region; describes key experiences in Argenti...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/j.2051-5545.2012.tb00130.x

    authors: Razzouk D,Gregório G,Antunes R,Mari JD

    更新日期:2012-10-01 00:00:00

  • Problematic Internet use: an overview.

    abstract::There is wide agreement that the Internet can serve as a tool that enhances well-being. It is more difficult, however, to find consensus around the issue of problematic Internet use. That may be in part because scientific investigation has lagged far behind technological advances and media attention. The diagnostic sc...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/j.2051-5545.2010.tb00278.x

    authors: Aboujaoude E

    更新日期:2010-06-01 00:00:00

  • The clinical characterization of the adult patient with depression aimed at personalization of management.

    abstract::Depression is widely acknowledged to be a heterogeneous entity, and the need to further characterize the individual patient who has received this diagnosis in order to personalize the management plan has been repeatedly emphasized. However, the research evidence that should guide this personalization is at present fra...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1002/wps.20771

    authors: Maj M,Stein DJ,Parker G,Zimmerman M,Fava GA,De Hert M,Demyttenaere K,McIntyre RS,Widiger T,Wittchen HU

    更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00

  • The future of pharmacotherapy for schizophrenia.

    abstract::Although enormous progress has been made in the treatment of schizophrenia, and the use of existing pharmacologic agents can have a dramatic effect on the short- and long-term management of the disorder, enormous challenges and unmet needs continue to exist. Despite the introduction of a second generation of antipsych...

    journal_title:World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Kane JM,Malhotra A

    更新日期:2003-06-01 00:00:00