Modeling to predict cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Chile.


BACKGROUND:Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a life threatening disease transmitted by the rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus in Chile. Hantavirus outbreaks are typically small and geographically confined. Several studies have estimated risk based on spatial and temporal distribution of cases in relation to climate and environmental variables, but few have considered climatological modeling of HPS incidence for monitoring and forecasting purposes. METHODOLOGY:Monthly counts of confirmed HPS cases were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health for 2001-2012. There were an estimated 667 confirmed HPS cases. The data suggested a seasonal trend, which appeared to correlate with changes in climatological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. We considered several Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models and regression models with ARIMA errors with one or a combination of these climate variables as covariates. We adopted an information-theoretic approach to model ranking and selection. Data from 2001-2009 were used in fitting and data from January 2010 to December 2012 were used for one-step-ahead predictions. RESULTS:We focused on six models. In a baseline model, future HPS cases were forecasted from previous incidence; the other models included climate variables as covariates. The baseline model had a Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) of 444.98, and the top ranked model, which included precipitation, had an AICc of 437.62. Although the AICc of the top ranked model only provided a 1.65% improvement to the baseline AICc, the empirical support was 39 times stronger relative to the baseline model. CONCLUSIONS:Instead of choosing a single model, we present a set of candidate models that can be used in modeling and forecasting confirmed HPS cases in Chile. The models can be improved by using data at the regional level and easily extended to other countries with seasonal incidence of HPS.


PLoS Negl Trop Dis


Nsoesie EO,Mekaru SR,Ramakrishnan N,Marathe MV,Brownstein JS




Has Abstract


2014-04-24 00:00:00














  • Performance Testing of PCR Assay in Blood Samples for the Diagnosis of Toxoplasmic Encephalitis in AIDS Patients from the French Departments of America and Genetic Diversity of Toxoplasma gondii: A Prospective and Multicentric Study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Toxoplasmic encephalitis in patients with AIDS is a life-threatening disease mostly due to reactivation of Toxoplasma gondii cysts in the brain. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of real-time PCR assay in peripheral blood samples for the diagnosis of toxoplasmic encephalitis in...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究


    authors: Ajzenberg D,Lamaury I,Demar M,Vautrin C,Cabié A,Simon S,Nicolas M,Desbois-Nogard N,Boukhari R,Riahi H,Dardé ML,Massip P,Dupon M,Preux PM,Labrunie A,Boncoeur MP

    更新日期:2016-06-29 00:00:00

  • Premolis semirufa (Walker, 1856) envenomation, disease affecting rubber tappers of the Amazon: searching for caterpillar-bristles toxic components.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The caterpillar of the moth Premolis semirufa (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae), commonly named Pararama, is endemic of the Amazon basin. Accidental contact with these caterpillar bristles causes local symptoms such as intense heat, pain, edema and itching which last for three to seven days; however, after multiples ...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Villas-Boas IM,Gonçalves-de-Andrade RM,Pidde-Queiroz G,Assaf SL,Portaro FC,Sant'Anna OA,van den Berg CW,Tambourgi DV

    更新日期:2012-01-01 00:00:00

  • FMRFamide-like peptides (FLPs) enhance voltage-gated calcium currents to elicit muscle contraction in the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni.

    abstract::Schistosomes are amongst the most important and neglected pathogens in the world, and schistosomiasis control relies almost exclusively on a single drug. The neuromuscular system of schistosomes is fertile ground for therapeutic intervention, yet the details of physiological events involved in neuromuscular function r...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Novozhilova E,Kimber MJ,Qian H,McVeigh P,Robertson AP,Zamanian M,Maule AG,Day TA

    更新日期:2010-08-10 00:00:00

  • Prevalence of signs of trachoma, ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection and antibodies to Pgp3 in residents of Kiritimati Island, Kiribati.

    abstract:OBJECTIVE:In some Pacific Island countries, such as Solomon Islands and Fiji, active trachoma is common, but ocular Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) are rare. On Tarawa, the most populous Kiribati island, both the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) and ...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Cama A,Müller A,Taoaba R,Butcher RMR,Itibita I,Migchelsen SJ,Kiauea T,Pickering H,Willis R,Roberts CH,Bakhtiari A,Le Mesurier RT,Alexander NDE,Martin DL,Tekeraoi R,Solomon AW,Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

    更新日期:2017-09-12 00:00:00

  • Prevalence and risk factors for echinococcal infection in a rural area of northern Chile: a household-based cross-sectional study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Hydatidosis is a zoonotic disease of worldwide distribution caused by Echinococcus granulosus. Our study aimed to determine the prevalence of human and canine echinococcosis as well as the associated risk factors in a rural area of the Limarí province in northern Chile. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A cros...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Acosta-Jamett G,Weitzel T,Boufana B,Adones C,Bahamonde A,Abarca K,Craig PS,Reiter-Owona I

    更新日期:2014-08-28 00:00:00

  • Potency and breadth of human primary ZIKV immune sera shows that Zika viruses cluster antigenically as a single serotype.

    abstract::Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global public health threat throughout the Americas since 2014. Phylogenetically, the virus is composed of three main lineages, an African, Asian, and American lineage. The recent emergence and spread of ZIKV has raised questions regarding the breadth and potency of human primary ZIKV im...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Nix CD,Salberg J,Coulter FJ,Kareko BW,Lyski ZL,Booty BL,Messer WB

    更新日期:2020-04-13 00:00:00

  • Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of prototype rapid tests for human African trypanosomiasis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Diagnosis of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) remains a challenge both for active screening, which is critical in control of the disease, and in the point-of-care scenario where early and accurate diagnosis is essential. Recently, the first field deployment of a lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT) fo...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Sternberg JM,Gierliński M,Biéler S,Ferguson MA,Ndung'u JM

    更新日期:2014-12-18 00:00:00

  • New Insights into the Geographic Distribution of Mycobacterium leprae SNP Genotypes Determined for Isolates from Leprosy Cases Diagnosed in Metropolitan France and French Territories.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Between 20 and 30 bacteriologically confirmed cases of leprosy are diagnosed each year at the French National Reference Center for mycobacteria. Patients are mainly immigrants from various endemic countries or living in French overseas territories. We aimed at expanding data regarding the geographical distri...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Reibel F,Chauffour A,Brossier F,Jarlier V,Cambau E,Aubry A

    更新日期:2015-10-06 00:00:00

  • A voluntary use of insecticide treated nets can stop the vector transmission of Chagas disease.

    abstract::One of the stated goals of the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases is the interruption of domiciliary transmissions of Chagas disease in the region of the Americas. We used a game-theoretic approach to assess the voluntary use of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) in the prevention of the spread of infectio...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Han CY,Issa H,Rychtář J,Taylor D,Umana N

    更新日期:2020-11-03 00:00:00

  • Altered Hypercoagulability Factors in Patients with Chronic Chagas Disease: Potential Biomarkers of Therapeutic Response.

    abstract::Thromboembolic events were described in patients with Chagas disease without cardiomyopathy. We aim to confirm if there is a hypercoagulable state in these patients and to determine if there is an early normalization of hemostasis factors after antiparasitic treatment. Ninety-nine individuals from Chagas disease-endem...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Pinazo MJ,Posada Ede J,Izquierdo L,Tassies D,Marques AF,de Lazzari E,Aldasoro E,Muñoz J,Abras A,Tebar S,Gallego M,de Almeida IC,Reverter JC,Gascon J

    更新日期:2016-01-04 00:00:00

  • "Zika is everywhere": A qualitative exploration of knowledge, attitudes and practices towards Zika virus among women of reproductive age in Iquitos, Peru.

    abstract::Zika virus was reported in the rainforest city of Iquitos, Peru in 2016. The potential associations between Zika and fetal neurological disorders were reported extensively in the media regarding neighboring Brazil, and led to great concern about the impact Zika could have on people's health in Iquitos when it arrived....

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Weldon CT,Riley-Powell AR,Aguerre IM,Celis Nacimento RA,Morrison AC,Oberhelman RA,Paz-Soldan VA

    更新日期:2018-08-30 00:00:00

  • Neutropenic Mice Provide Insight into the Role of Skin-Infiltrating Neutrophils in the Host Protective Immunity against Filarial Infective Larvae.

    abstract::Our knowledge and control of the pathogenesis induced by the filariae remain limited due to experimental obstacles presented by parasitic nematode biology and the lack of selective prophylactic or curative drugs. Here we thought to investigate the role of neutrophils in the host innate immune response to the infection...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Pionnier N,Brotin E,Karadjian G,Hemon P,Gaudin-Nomé F,Vallarino-Lhermitte N,Nieguitsila A,Fercoq F,Aknin ML,Marin-Esteban V,Chollet-Martin S,Schlecht-Louf G,Bachelerie F,Martin C

    更新日期:2016-04-25 00:00:00

  • Major risk factors and histopathological profile of treatment failure, relapse and chronic patients with anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis: A prospective case-control study on treatment outcome and their medical importance.

    abstract::Over the last years, there has been a remarkable increase in the number of unresponsive patients with anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) reported worldwide. The primary objective of this study was to explore the role of demographic, clinical and environmental risk related-factors in the development of treatme...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Bamorovat M,Sharifi I,Dabiri S,Shamsi Meymandi S,Karamoozian A,Amiri R,Heshmatkhah A,Borhani Zarandi M,Aflatoonian MR,Sharifi F,Kheirandish R,Hassanzadeh S

    更新日期:2021-01-28 00:00:00

  • Failure of fluconazole in treating cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania guyanensis in the Brazilian Amazon: An open, nonrandomized phase 2 trial.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The treatment of Leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania (Viannia) guyanensis is based on a weak strength of evidence from very few clinical trials and some case series reports. Current treatment guidelines recommend pentamidine isethionate or meglumine antimoniate (Glucantime) as the first-line choices. Both are...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Francesconi VA,Francesconi F,Ramasawmy R,Romero GAS,Alecrim MDGC

    更新日期:2018-02-26 00:00:00

  • Fulminant Amebic Colitis after Corticosteroid Therapy: A Systematic Review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Amebic colitis, caused by intestinal infection with the parasite, Entamoeba histolytica, is a common cause of diarrhea worldwide. Fulminant amebic colitis is the most devastating complication of this infection, associated with both high mortality and morbidity. We conducted a review of the English literature...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Shirley DA,Moonah S

    更新日期:2016-07-28 00:00:00

  • Leishmania donovani develops resistance to drug combinations.

    abstract::Drug combinations for the treatment of leishmaniasis represent a promising and challenging chemotherapeutic strategy that has recently been implemented in different endemic areas. However, the vast majority of studies undertaken to date have ignored the potential risk that Leishmania parasites could develop resistance...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: García-Hernández R,Manzano JI,Castanys S,Gamarro F

    更新日期:2012-01-01 00:00:00

  • Footprint of positive selection in Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum genome sequences suggests adaptive microevolution of the syphilis pathogen.

    abstract::In the rabbit model of syphilis, infection phenotypes associated with the Nichols and Chicago strains of Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum), though similar, are not identical. Between these strains, significant differences are found in expression of, and antibody responses to some candidate virulence factors, suggesting...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Giacani L,Chattopadhyay S,Centurion-Lara A,Jeffrey BM,Le HT,Molini BJ,Lukehart SA,Sokurenko EV,Rockey DD

    更新日期:2012-01-01 00:00:00

  • Pre-operative trichiatic eyelash pattern predicts post-operative trachomatous trichiasis.

    abstract:IMPORTANCE:Trichiasis surgery programs globally have faced high rates of poor surgical outcomes. Identifying correctable risk factors for improving long-term outcomes is essential for countries targeting elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. OBJECTIVE:To determine whether the location of trichiatic eyela...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Gower EW,Munoz B,Rajak S,Habtamu E,West SK,Merbs SL,Harding JC,Alemayehu W,Callahan EK,Emerson PM,Gebre T,Burton MJ

    更新日期:2019-10-07 00:00:00

  • Evaluation of a novel microfluidic immuno-magnetic agglutination assay method for detection of dengue virus NS1 antigen.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Dengue virus (DENV) is the most important arbovirus worldwide, causing infections in endemic countries and returning travellers from these areas. Rapid diagnostic tests are needed to improve patient management and monitor local transmission. The detection of DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) is a useful to...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Alejo-Cancho I,Navero-Castillejos J,Peiró-Mestres A,Albarracín R,Barrachina J,Navarro A,Gonzalo V,Pastor V,Muñoz J,Martínez MJ

    更新日期:2020-02-18 00:00:00

  • Differential regional immune response in Chagas disease.

    abstract::Following infection, lymphocytes expand exponentially and differentiate into effector cells to control infection and coordinate the multiple effector arms of the immune response. Soon after this expansion, the majority of antigen-specific lymphocytes die, thus keeping homeostasis, and a small pool of memory cells deve...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: de Meis J,Morrot A,Farias-de-Oliveira DA,Villa-Verde DM,Savino W

    更新日期:2009-07-07 00:00:00

  • Proteomic selection of immunodiagnostic antigens for Trypanosoma congolense.

    abstract::Animal African Trypanosomosis (AAT) presents a severe problem for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. It is caused by several trypanosome species and current means of diagnosis are expensive and impractical for field use. Our aim was to discover antigens for the detection of antibodies to Trypanosoma congo...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Fleming JR,Sastry L,Crozier TW,Napier GB,Sullivan L,Ferguson MA

    更新日期:2014-06-12 00:00:00

  • Accuracy of different diagnostic techniques for Schistosoma haematobium to estimate treatment needs in Zimbabwe: Application of a hierarchical Bayesian egg count model.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Treatment needs for Schistosoma haematobium are commonly evaluated using urine filtration with detection of parasite eggs under a microscope. A common symptom of S. haematobium is hematuria, the passing of blood in urine. Hence, the use of hematuria-based diagnostic techniques as a proxy for the assessment o...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Midzi N,Bärenbold O,Manangazira P,Phiri I,Mutsaka-Makuvaza MJ,Mhlanga G,Utzinger J,Vounatsou P

    更新日期:2020-08-20 00:00:00

  • Evidence that lipopolisaccharide may contribute to the cytokine storm and cellular activation in patients with visceral leishmaniasis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterized by parasite-specific immunosuppression besides an intense pro-inflammatory response. Lipopolisaccharide (LPS) has been implicated in the immune activation of T-cell deficient diseases such as HIV/AIDS and idiopathic lymphocytopenia. The source of LPS is gram-negat...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Santos-Oliveira JR,Regis EG,Leal CR,Cunha RV,Bozza PT,Da-Cruz AM

    更新日期:2011-07-01 00:00:00

  • Protection conferred by typhoid fever against recurrent typhoid fever in urban Kolkata.

    abstract::We evaluated the protection conferred by a first documented visit for clinical care of typhoid fever against recurrent typhoid fever prompting a visit. This study takes advantage of multi-year follow-up of a population with endemic typhoid participating in a cluster-randomized control trial of Vi capsular polysacchari...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Im J,Islam MT,Kim DR,Ahmmed F,Chon Y,Zaman K,Khan AI,Ali M,Sur D,Kanungo S,Dutta S,Bhattacharya SK,Dougan G,Holt KE,Marks F,Kim JH,Qadri F,Clemens JD

    更新日期:2020-08-17 00:00:00

  • Knowledge and attitude towards Ebola and Marburg virus diseases in Uganda using quantitative and participatory epidemiology techniques.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Uganda has reported five (5) Ebola virus disease outbreaks and three (3) Marburg virus disease outbreaks from 2000 to 2016. Peoples' knowledge and attitude towards Ebola and Marburg virus disease impact on control and prevention measures especially during outbreaks. We describe knowledge and attitude towards...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Nyakarahuka L,Skjerve E,Nabadda D,Sitali DC,Mumba C,Mwiine FN,Lutwama JJ,Balinandi S,Shoemaker T,Kankya C

    更新日期:2017-09-11 00:00:00

  • Mechanisms of pyrethroid resistance in the dengue mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti: target site insensitivity, penetration, and metabolism.

    abstract::Aedes aegypti is the major vector of yellow and dengue fevers. After 10 generations of adult selection, an A. aegypti strain (SP) developed 1650-fold resistance to permethrin, which is one of the most widely used pyrethroid insecticides for mosquito control. SP larvae also developed 8790-fold resistance following sele...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Kasai S,Komagata O,Itokawa K,Shono T,Ng LC,Kobayashi M,Tomita T

    更新日期:2014-06-19 00:00:00

  • Type 3 secretion system cluster 3 is a critical virulence determinant for lung-specific melioidosis.

    abstract::Burkholderia pseudomallei, the bacterial agent of melioidosis, causes disease through inhalation of infectious particles, and is classified as a Tier 1 Select Agent. Optical diagnostic imaging has demonstrated that murine respiratory disease models are subject to significant upper respiratory tract (URT) colonization....

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Gutierrez MG,Pfeffer TL,Warawa JM

    更新日期:2015-01-08 00:00:00

  • The glutamine synthetase of Trypanosoma cruzi is required for its resistance to ammonium accumulation and evasion of the parasitophorous vacuole during host-cell infection.

    abstract::Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease, consumes glucose and amino acids depending on the environmental availability of each nutrient during its complex life cycle. For example, amino acids are the major energy and carbon sources in the intracellular stages of the T. cruzi parasite, but their consu...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Crispim M,Damasceno FS,Hernández A,Barisón MJ,Pretto Sauter I,Souza Pavani R,Santos Moura A,Pral EMF,Cortez M,Elias MC,Silber AM

    更新日期:2018-01-10 00:00:00

  • qPCR-High resolution melt analysis for drug susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium leprae directly from clinical specimens of leprosy patients.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Real-Time PCR-High Resolution Melting (qPCR-HRM) analysis has been recently described for rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST) of Mycobacterium leprae. The purpose of the current study was to further evaluate the validity, reliability, and accuracy of this assay for M. leprae DST in clinical specimens. M...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Araujo S,Goulart LR,Truman RW,Goulart IMB,Vissa V,Li W,Matsuoka M,Suffys P,Fontes AB,Rosa PS,Scollard DM,Williams DL

    更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00

  • IL-33/ST2 correlates with severity of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and regulates the inflammatory response in Hantaan virus-infected endothelial cells.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Hantaan virus (HTNV) causes a severe lethal haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in humans. Despite a limited understanding of the pathogenesis of HFRS, the importance of the abundant production of pro-inflammatory cytokines has been widely recognized. Interleukin 33 (IL-33) has been demonstrated to...

    journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Zhang Y,Zhang C,Zhuang R,Ma Y,Zhang Y,Yi J,Yang A,Jin B

    更新日期:2015-02-06 00:00:00