Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Early warning systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics of infectious diseases. While climate-based EWS have been developed for malaria, no standard protocol to evaluate and compare EWS has been proposed. Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:In the present paper, an overview of the available linear and non-linear tools to predict seasonal time series of diseases is presented. Also, a general methodology to compare and evaluate models for prediction is presented and illustrated using American cutaneous leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, as an example. The comparison of the different models using the predictive R(2) for forecasts of "out-of-fit" data (data that has not been used to fit the models) shows that for the several linear and non-linear models tested, the best results were obtained for seasonal autoregressive (SAR) models that incorporate climatic covariates. An additional bootstrapping experiment shows that the relationship of the disease time series with the climatic covariates is strong and consistent for the SAR modeling approach. While the autoregressive part of the model is not significant, the exogenous forcing due to climate is always statistically significant. Prediction accuracy can vary from 50% to over 80% for disease burden at time scales of one year or shorter. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:this study illustrates a protocol for the development of EWS that includes three main steps: (i) the fitting of different models using several methodologies, (ii) the comparison of models based on the predictability of "out-of-fit" data, and (iii) the assessment of the robustness of the relationship between the disease and the variables in the model selected as best with an objective criterion.
journal_name
PLoS Negl Trop Disjournal_title
PLoS neglected tropical diseasesauthors
Chaves LF,Pascual Mdoi
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000033subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2007-10-22 00:00:00pages
e33issue
1eissn
1935-2727issn
1935-2735journal_volume
1pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Human African trypanosomiasis is a severely neglected vector-borne disease that is always fatal if untreated. In Tanzania it is highly focalised and of major socio-economic and public health importance in affected communities. OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of rhodesiense H...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000868
更新日期:2010-11-02 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti worldwide, whose chemical control is difficult, expensive, and of inconsistent efficacy. Releases of Metarhizium anisopliae--exposed Ae. aegypti males to disseminate conidia among female mosquitoes by mating represents a promising bi...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004144
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abstract:BACKGROUND:The two front-line drugs for chronic Trypanosoma cruzi infections are limited by adverse side-effects and declining efficacy. One potential new target for Chagas' disease chemotherapy is sterol 14alpha-demethylase (CYP51), a cytochrome P450 enzyme involved in biosynthesis of membrane sterols. METHODOLOGY/PR...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000372
更新日期:2009-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Global efforts to control morbidity associated with soil-transmitted helminth infections (STH) have focused largely on the targeted treatment of high-risk groups, including children and pregnant women. However, it is not clear when such programs can be discontinued and there are concerns about the sustainability of cu...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008771
更新日期:2020-11-02 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Hantaan virus (HTNV; family Hantaviridae, order Bunyavirales) causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), which has raised serious concerns in Eurasia, especially in China, Russia, and South Korea. Previous studies reported genetic diversity and phylogenetic features of HTNV in different parts of Ch...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008090
更新日期:2020-08-20 00:00:00
abstract::Schistosomes are intravascular helminths that infect over 200 million people worldwide. Deposition of eggs by adult schistosomes stimulates Th2 responses to egg antigens and induces granulomatous pathology that is a hallmark of schistosome infection. Paradoxically, schistosomes require host immune function for their d...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002136
更新日期:2013-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Carrion' disease, caused by Bartonella bacilliformis, remains truly neglected due to its focal geographical nature. A wide spectrum of clinical manifestations, including asymptomatic bacteremia, and lack of a sensitive diagnostic test can potentially lead to a spread of the disease into non-endemic regions w...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003342
更新日期:2014-12-18 00:00:00
abstract::Sand flies are the insects responsible for transmitting Leishmania parasites, the causative agents of leishmaniasis in humans. However, the effects of sand fly breeding sites on their biology and ecology remain poorly understood. Herein, we studied how larval nutrition associated with putative breeding sites of the sa...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009034
更新日期:2021-01-21 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Reduced susceptibility of mosquito vectors to currently used insecticides hampers control interventions. Recently pyriproxyfen, an insect growth regulator has been demonstrated to effectively reduce the reproductive potential in vector mosquitoes. METHODS:Pyriproxyfen (PPF), in different concentrations (0.7...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007842
更新日期:2019-11-18 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Phlebotomus tobbi is a vector of Leishmania infantum, and P. sergenti is a vector of Leishmania tropica. Le. infantum and Le. tropica typically cause visceral or cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively, but Le. infantum strains transmitted by P. tobbi can cause cutaneous disease. To better understand the compo...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001660
更新日期:2012-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Schistosomiasis affects approximately 240 million people in the world. Schistosoma mansoni eggs in the liver induce periportal fibrosis and hepatic failure driven by monocyte recruitment and macrophage activation, resulting in robust Th2 response. Here, we suggested a possible involvement of Galectin-3 (Gal-3), histon...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005137
更新日期:2017-02-23 00:00:00
abstract::Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) continues to challenge Asia with pandemic potential. In Vietnam, there have been two major outbreaks occurring during 2011-2012 (>200,000 hospitalizations and >200 deaths) and more recently in 2018 (>130,000 hospitalizations and 17 deaths). Given the high burden and the complex epid...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008544
更新日期:2020-08-17 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Dengue is one of the most serious and rapidly spreading arboviral diseases in the world. Despite many acute febrile illnesses in Ethiopia, the burden of illness due to dengue in the country is largely unknown. Thus, the present study aimed to provide the first baseline data on seroprevalence and associated r...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006430
更新日期:2018-05-31 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Animal tungiasis is believed to increase the prevalence and parasite burden in humans. Animal reservoirs of Tunga penetrans differ among endemic areas and their role in the epidemiology of tungiasis had never been investigated in Uganda. METHODS AND FINDINGS:To identify the major animal reservoirs of Tunga ...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004126
更新日期:2015-10-16 00:00:00
abstract::[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007025.]. ...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 已发布勘误
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008725
更新日期:2020-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Molecular diagnostics has become essential in the identification of many infectious and neglected diseases, and the detection of nucleic acids often serves as the gold standard technique for most infectious agents. However, established techniques like polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are time-consuming labora...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009114
更新日期:2021-01-29 00:00:00
abstract::Fasciolosis caused by Fasciola gigantica is a neglected tropical disease but a constraint on the growth and productivity of cattle, buffaloes and sheep in the tropical countries of Asia and Africa. Resistance to commonly used anthelmintics in Fasciola has increased the need to search for alternative therapeutic target...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006109
更新日期:2017-12-12 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral infection to affect humans. Although it usually manifests as a self-limited febrile illness, complications may occur as the fever subsides. A systemic vascular leak syndrome that sometimes progresses to life-threatening hypovolaemic shock is the most serious ...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005498
更新日期:2017-04-27 00:00:00
abstract::Ebolaviruses pose a substantial threat to wildlife populations and to public health in Africa. Evolutionary analyses of virus genome sequences can contribute significantly to elucidate the origin of new outbreaks, which can help guide surveillance efforts. The reconstructed between-outbreak evolutionary history of Zai...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008117
更新日期:2020-03-04 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a cutaneous complication appearing after treatment of visceral leishmaniasis, and PKDL patients are considered infectious to sand flies and may therefore play a role in the transmission of VL. We estimated the risk and risk factors of PKDL in patients with past...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001433
更新日期:2011-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000947
更新日期:2011-01-25 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that causes mild to severe diarrhoeal disease in humans. To date, several commercial companies have developed rapid immunoassays for the detection of Cryptosporidium infection. However, the challenge is to identify an accurate, simple and rapid diagnostic tool for the ...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008448
更新日期:2020-07-13 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008963
更新日期:2020-12-31 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003319
更新日期:2014-11-20 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 已发布勘误
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更新日期:2016-08-26 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008114
更新日期:2020-05-07 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2021-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2011-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001678
更新日期:2012-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000517
更新日期:2009-09-15 00:00:00